اقتصاد برای ایرانیان

TEHRAN University was packed on Friday July 17th to hear Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, give his first sermon since Iran’s disputed presidential election in June. Mr Rafsanjani has emerged as perhaps the most powerful supporter of Mir Hosein Mousavi, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s main opponent, and a leading critic of the embattled ruling establishment.


Many came to hear him speak. Thousands more protesters gathered in the streets outside, chanting “Allah-u Akbar” and “death to the dictator”. They had come to show their support for Mr Mousavi who, along with Mehdi Karroubi, another defeated candidate, was also in attendance. Video footage, apparently showing the crowds outside the university, wearing the green that has become the symbol of Mr Mousavi’s campaign, was quickly posted on the internet. Members of the baseej, the thuggish Islamic militia, whose members have supported Mr Ahmadinejad with their voices and their batons, were out in force too. The police used tear gas to disperse the protesters.

Some had hoped this could be a defining moment in the protests against the election results. But the sermon offered few surprises. Mr Rafsanjani held back from criticising by name Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, or Mr Ahmadinejad. This came as a disappointment to those hoping for a more explicit challenge to the regime.

Mr Rafsanjani did, however, cast further doubts on the election results and went on to describe the situation in Iran as a crisis. He echoed Mr Mousavi’s appeals for the release of those protesters who have been arrested and called for the media to be allowed to operate freely. He warned that people had lost their faith in the regime and argued that the government had to regain the trust and consent of the people. He signed off by stressing that all Iranians are part of the same family and must remain friends and allies.

Mr Rafsanjani avoided sounding too confrontational but there was enough in his speech to worry Mr Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad. Unlike Mr Khamenei’s speech at Friday prayers a month ago, Mr Rafsanjani’s address was not broadcast on state television though it did go out on radio. That it was not shown on television (as Friday prayers usually are) suggests that the government is still nervous about the aftermath of the contentious election. Opposition rallies have largely died down since July 9th but on Friday protesters turned out in their thousands despite warnings from the authorities not to use the occasion as “an arena for undesirable scenes”. This reinforces the depth of anger felt by Iranians about the election and all that has followed.

Mr Ahmadinejad was notably absent at the Friday prayers. He was meant to be in Egypt this week for a meeting of the non-aligned movement but sent his foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, in his place. His decision not to attend suggests that he is still anxious about Iran’s unstable politics.

The fissures at the top of the Islamic regime show no signs of healing. With more senior clerical figures coming out in support of Mr Mousavi, the ruling elite is looking increasingly divided between the clerics and the military. The criticism from clerics is particularly galling for Mr Khamenei who has always felt insecure about his religious credentials. The Revolutionary Guard has stuck by Mr Khamenei and Mr Ahmadinejad so far.

This month has seen the execution of 13 or 14 members of Jundullah, a Sunni group, in south-east Iran and of 20 people accused of drug trafficking. The executions are a reminder of the power the regime is prepared to wield against its enemies. The authorities may well be hoping to create an atmosphere fear in the Islamic republic that will dissuade Iranians from protesting any more about the elections. So far, it does not seem to be working.